Is the United Kingdom really united? The United Kingdom is less united than it was.
“What is happening around Northern Ireland will worry people in Northern Ireland, Ireland and through Ireland the EU. But this UK government’s power base is anchored in England. This means it is primarily sensitive to what happens to its voters in English seats.”
Alexander Clarkson, Kings College London, 8 June 2021
In the 1980s, I studied UK government and politics. Any discussion on Scottish independence and Irish reunification were fanciful and pointless. This has changed.
There is a secessionist political movement in Scotland. The Scottish government are making plans for another independence referendum and some preparations for Scotland’s accession to the EU. In UK general elections since 2015, the SNP has won more than half of Scotland’s 59 Westminster seats. After the next UK general election, expect the SNP to remain the third largest party in the UK. They will continue to hold a significant number of seats in the House of Commons.
Before May 2022, voters elect a new Northern Ireland Assembly. Surveys suggest that Sinn Féin will top the poll. This may pave the way for the subsequent power-sharing executive to be led by Irish nationalists.
There have been several referendum in Wales. One in 1997 led to the creation of Welsh devolved institutions. Another in 2011, transferred and codified more law making powers for the Welsh Sensed and Welsh Government.
The Covid-19 pandemic has illustrated the devolved nature of UK public health. UK government COVID-19 announcements only apply to England.
The current UK government’s preference is English agency. In this form, only England is the agent for change for the whole of the UK. It’s unclear how long the UK as a whole can be governed by consent from Wales, Northern Ireland, and Scotland. This uncertainty arises when the UK government derives almost all its support from many English voters.
